Summary of expected developments

Our planning is based on the assumption that global economic output will grow overall in 2026 at a similar pace to 2025. Declining inflation in key economic regions and the resulting gradual easing of monetary policy are expected to boost consumer demand. We continue to see risks in the increasing fragmentation of the global economy and protectionist tendencies, in turbulence in the financial, energy and commodity markets, as well as in structural deficits in individual countries. Growth prospects are also weighed down by continuing geopolitical tensions and conflicts; risks stem in particular from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the confrontations in the Middle East, as well as growing uncertainties regarding the policy stance of the USA and the global increase of geoeconomic measures, which could further exacerbate geopolitical tensions. We anticipate that advanced economies will maintain, on average, a momentum comparable to that of the reporting year, while the group of emerging markets is expected to exhibit somewhat softer dynamics.

The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will continue to increase. Crisis-related disruptions to the global supply chain and the resulting impact on vehicle availability may weigh on new registration volumes. Moreover, suddenly arising or intensifying geopolitical tensions and conflicts could in particular result in rising material prices and declining energy availability, and necessitate a reassessment of existing resource allocations.

We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed but stable overall in 2026. Overall, global new vehicle sales volumes are expected to be on a level with the previous year. In Western Europe, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in 2026 will also be on a level with the reporting year. For the German passenger car market, we also assume that the volume of new registrations in 2026 will be at the prior-year level. We anticipate a strong year-on-year increase in sales of passenger cars overall in markets in Central and Eastern Europe – subject to further developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall, as well as in the USA, sales volumes in 2026 are forecast to be slightly below the previous year’s level. The number of new registrations in the South American markets in 2026 is projected to show a slight overall year-on-year increase. The passenger car markets in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 are expected to be similar to the previous year.

Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will be mixed; on the whole, the sales volume for 2026 is likely to be on a level with the previous year.

For 2026, we expect new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes will be on a level with the previous year in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, with regional variations. A slight year-on-year decrease in demand is anticipated for 2026 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group, but this will vary depending on the region.

We assume that automotive financial services will continue to play an important role in global vehicle sales in 2026, in conjunction with the development of vehicle markets.

In a challenging market environment, we anticipate that the number of deliveries to customers of the Volkswagen Group in 2026 will be on a level with the previous year.

Challenges will arise in particular from the economic environment, uncertainties related to international trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions, intensifying competition, volatile commodity, energy and foreign exchange markets, as well as stricter emissions-related requirements.

The sales revenue of the Volkswagen Group is likely to develop within the range of 0% to +3% in 2026. The operating return on sales for the Group is projected to be between 4.0% and 5.5%. We assume that the investment ratio in the Automotive Division will lie between 11% and 12% in 2026. We expect net cash flow for 2026 to be between €3 billion and €6 billion. Net liquidity in the Automotive Division in 2026 is expected to range between €32 billion and €34 billion. We remain committed to continuing our robust financing and liquidity policy.

The forecast is based on the assumption that the current tariff situation in international trade will persist.