Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles

For 2026, we expect that new registrations for mid-sized and heavy trucks with a gross weight of more than six tonnes will be on a level with the previous year in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, with regional variations.

In the EU27+3 region, market development is expected to be slightly up on the previous year. The truck market in North America is divided into weight classes 1 to 8. In the segments relevant for Volkswagen – Class 6 to 8 (8.85 tonnes or heavier) – we expect new registrations to be slightly above the level of the previous year. We anticipate a noticeable dip in demand in South America in 2026.

On average, we anticipate that demand in the relevant truck markets will remain at a steady level for the years 2027 to 2030.

A slight year-on-year decrease in demand is anticipated for 2026 in the bus markets relevant for the Volkswagen Group, whereby this will vary depending on the region. In the EU27+3 region, we expect demand to be noticeably under the prior-year level. We forecast noticeable growth for the bus markets in North America for 2026. New registrations in South America are expected to be significantly lower than the prior-year figure in 2026.

Overall, we predict demand for buses to be steady on average across the relevant markets for the period from 2027 to 2030.