Exchange rate, interest rate and commodity price trends

Exchange rate trends

For 2026, we expect the euro to appreciate against the US dollar and pound sterling. The Chinese renminbi, Brazilian real, Mexican peso and South African rand are expected to depreciate to varying degrees against the European single currency. Due to persistently high inflation in Argentina and Türkiye, strong depreciation is projected for the Argentinian peso and the Turkish lira.

We anticipate that the European single currency will be largely stable against the US dollar and the Mexican peso between 2027 and 2030. We assume that the euro will appreciate slightly against pound sterling on average and that the Brazilian real will depreciate on average. An average rate of appreciation is forecast for the Chinese renminbi and the South African rand for the years 2027 to 2030 compared with 2026. The comparative weakness of the Turkish lira and the Argentinian peso is set to continue. However, there is still a general event risk, defined as the risk arising from unforeseeable market developments.

Interest rate trends

Although almost all major western industrialized countries and many emerging markets made their key interest rate cuts in 2025, further changes in key interest rates in 2026 in the respective countries will depend firstly on further inflation developments and secondly on the scale of a possible economic downturn. Overall, we expect a somewhat lower interest rate level on average in 2026 compared to 2025.

We estimate that, on the whole, interest rates will persist at around this level between 2027 and 2030.

Commodity price trends

We expect the prices of many commodities to rise in 2026. Due to the exchange rate effect, price increases will not necessarily always be reflected in the measurement in euros.

We anticipate continued volatility in the commodity markets at higher prices in some cases for the period from 2027 to 2030. We expect significant price increases for battery materials and precious metals in particular.