Trends in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles

The trend in the automotive industry closely follows global economic developments. We assume that competition in the international automotive markets will continue to increase. Crisis-related disruption to the global supply chain and the resulting impact on vehicle availability may weigh on the volume of new registrations. Moreover, sudden new or intensified geopolitical tensions and conflicts could lead in particular to rising prices for materials and declining availability of energy.

We predict that trends in the markets for passenger cars in the individual regions will be mixed but generally stable overall in 2026. Overall, the global volume of new car sales is expected to be on a level with the previous year. We are forecasting growing demand for passenger cars worldwide in the period from 2027 to 2030.

Trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions will be mixed; on the whole, we expect the sales volume for 2026 to be on a level with the previous year’s figure. For the years 2027 to 2030, we expect demand for light commercial vehicles to increase globally.

Europe/Other Markets

For 2026, we anticipate that the volume of new passenger car registrations in Western Europe will be on a level with the reporting year. For the major individual markets of Italy and the United Kingdom, we expect growth in 2026 to be at the prior-year level, with growth in France to be similar to the previous year. We estimate that the Spanish market will come in at slightly below the level recorded in the previous year.

For light commercial vehicles, we expect the volume of new registrations in Western Europe in 2026 to be slightly higher than in the previous year. Mixed development is anticipated in the major individual markets of France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain.

We expect a strong year-on-year increase in sales of passenger cars overall in markets in Central and Eastern Europe in 2026 – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We expect a mixed development in the major markets of this region.

Registrations of light commercial vehicles in the markets of Central and Eastern Europe in 2026 will probably noticeably exceed the prior-year figures – subject to the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Germany

In the German passenger car market, we expect the volume of new registrations in 2026 to be at the prior-year level.

We anticipate that the number of registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2026 will be noticeably up on the figure recorded the previous year.

North America

The sales volume in the markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (up to 6.35 tonnes) in North America overall and in the United States in 2026 is forecast to be slightly lower than the level seen in the previous year. Demand will probably remain highest predominantly for models in the SUV and pickup segments. We expect to see a strong decline in new registrations of all-electric vehicles due to a realignment of BEV subsidies at the federal level. In Canada, the number of vehicles sold is likely to be slightly lower than in the previous year. We also expect the volume of new registrations in Mexico to be slightly under the prior-year level.

South America

Owing to their dependence on demand for raw materials worldwide, the South American markets for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles are heavily influenced by developments in the global economy. We anticipate a slight increase overall in new registrations in the South American markets in 2026 compared with the previous year. The market volume in Brazil is expected to be noticeably higher than in 2025, while in Argentina it is projected to be slightly up on the prior year.

Asia-Pacific

The volume of new passenger car registrations in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 will probably be in the range of the previous year. We estimate that the market volume in China will likewise be in the range of the 2025 figure. Plug-in hybrid models with long ranges are likely to be increasingly in demand. A weaker-than-expected economic recovery or intensifying geopolitical tensions may have adverse effects. In particular, the volatile trade dispute between China and the United States is likely to continue to weigh on business and consumer confidence, as long as there is no resolution in sight. We expect the Indian passenger car market to be at the same level as the previous year, while demand in Japan will probably slightly exceed the prior-year volume.

The volume of new registrations for light commercial vehicles in the Asia-Pacific region in 2026 will probably be on a level with the previous year’s figure. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to be in the range of the prior year. For India, we project that the volume in 2026 will be slightly higher than in the reporting year. In the Japanese market, we estimate that volumes will also be slightly higher year-on-year.